Sunday 2 February 2014

Atiku's Spots

The wave of political tornadoes that have hit the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) got to its climax on Sunday 2 February 2014 with the exit of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar from the Party. Mr Abubakar who described the PDP as irredeemable had in the past left the party and returned to it after loosing his bid to become Nigeria's president through another political platform in 2007. In this political time such moves are not dramatic considering recent political happenings that saw the exit of five PDP rebel governors that left the party after failed attempts at reconciling them with the old PDP.

What does the exit of Mr Abubakar mean for the ruling PDP's fortunes. It remains to be seen how the next political moves by the former VP would turn out to be in the months ahead. His home state of Adamawa in northern Nigeria is under his new political party the APC. The governor of the state, an old archnemesis of Atiku, is a strong man in the APC and he is likely not to oppose the former VP in his next political strategy, say wanting to become the presidential flagbearer of the APC. In the past, the VP had contested under the umbrella of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and lost the election to the late President Umar Musa Yar'Adua.  VP Abubakar's supporters are not in the majority in the PDP and his exit alone will not spring a headache for the ruling elite. As a matter of fact, the former veepee's allies are mostly now within the APC and he has no option other than to leave Dr Jonathan's party, the PDP. His continuous political flip-flop will certainly remind many of the nature and complexity of the skin of a leopard.

Many watchers of the Nigerian political scene will trace Atiku's political troubles to his former boss Mr Obasanjo.  It was in 2003 when speculations emerged that the then VP Abubakar will challenge his boss Obasanjo in the presidential primary of the then all-powerful PDP. This move angered President Obasanjo and the battle line was drawn later in the run-up to the dying days of Chief Obasanjo's administration. So, Atiku's political grave may have been dug by himself when he insinuated challenging his boss.

The object of this many ship-jumping to escape drowning under a weak captain may be a spoof as many have opined: that, it is not about how the opposition will do something differently like stamping out corruption, provision of portable water and other basic amenities that are key to survival. The old ways of doing things may not be affected by this cross-carpeting even after the 2015 elections because of the kind of people involved in the political game. We will continue to remember the old wine new bottle philosophy.